Former Obama health advisor on his study comparing Covid-19 death rates in the U.S. and abroad
U.S. coronavirus mortality outlook improved
White House urges not to consider this as an excuse for refusing to comply with recommendations to counter the epidemic
The authoritative model of the development of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States lowered the predicted mortality rate by 26 percent, to 60 thousand people, but a federal official warned of a second wave of infections if Americans became less likely to comply with recommendations on social distancing.
The downward revision of the projected death toll in the University of Washington model, frequently cited by federal and state politicians, coincided with comments from some political leaders that the burden on the health care system in some areas may have plateaued..
In recent days, there has been a clear alignment of hospital admissions rates in New York State, the epicenter of the US pandemic. But the significance of this and other estimates is decreasing against the background of a constant increase in the number of deaths, which on Tuesday amounted to more than 1900. On the same day, about 30 thousand new infections became known.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said at a briefing on Wednesday that the number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous U.S. city has stabilized, and the need for ventilators was below projected..
“Over the past few days, we have seen that we need fewer ventilators than anticipated,” the mayor said..
But even the revised forecast suggests a few tough months in the US. The total number of infected in the country has exceeded 400 thousand people, about 13 thousand people have died.
“It is important that people do not perceive these early signs of hope as the permissibility of leaving the 30-day regimen to stop the spread of the virus. This is very important, ”said Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House working group on coronavirus, referring to the recommendations aimed at reducing the rate of spread of the virus..
“If people start going out and talking again, then we can see a really sharp second wave,” Birks added..
The pandemic turned life in America upside down: 94 percent of the population were ordered to stay at home, about 10 million people have lost their jobs in the past two weeks.
The model developed by the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is one of several cited by a White House working group. She currently predicts more than 60,000 deaths from coronavirus in the United States by August 4. On Tuesday, the forecast was 82 thousand.
Earlier, the White House working group on coronavirus predicted that 100-240 thousand Americans could become victims of the disease.